Potential Retaliation & Future Trade Barriers

Beyond cost concerns, the possibility of retaliatory actions from Canada and Mexico presents additional risks. Both countries have signaled that they may respond with counter-tariffs on U.S. exports, further increasing trade costs. In addition to tariffs, non-tariff measures like increased import inspections, stricter licensing requirements, or new import quotas could create further complications for businesses reliant on cross-border trade. 

Trade relationships with the European Union and the United Kingdom are also under scrutiny, with speculation that the U.S. may expand tariffs to include goods from these regions. Additionally, fluctuations in currency value—especially if the U.S. dollar strengthens—could alter trade dynamics, making American exports more expensive and less competitive in international markets. 

USMCA & Future Trade Relations 

The uncertainty surrounding tariffs raises questions about the long-term stability of USMCA. Designed to provide predictability in North American trade, the agreement could face new challenges if tariff disputes escalate. 

How Tariffs Could Impact USMCA

Tariffs create instability, making it harder for businesses to plan long-term investments. If these trade barriers are enacted, they could undermine the core intent of USMCA—ensuring a stable, mutually beneficial trade environment between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Additionally, some experts believe that such tariffs may violate existing USMCA commitments, potentially leading to legal disputes and diplomatic tensions. 

What Businesses Should Watch For

Companies must stay informed about potential policy shifts by monitoring: 

• Political rhetoric: Trade policies are often signaled through speeches and official statements. 
• Economic indicators: Changes in GDP growth, trade deficits, or unemployment rates may signal shifts in trade policy. 
• Diplomatic relations: The strength of U.S. relationships with Canada and Mexico will influence future trade agreements. 

Proactive Steps for Businesses

Companies should take proactive steps to minimize risks to navigate potential trade changes. I’ve recently recommended these actions to our clients: 

• Conduct a compliance audit to ensure adherence to evolving trade regulations. 
• Stay informed about tariff developments and legal challenges. 
• Provide ongoing training to key staff on trade regulations and compliance requirements. 
• Develop contingency plans for alternative suppliers or transportation routes. 

If you’re interested in these action steps, let’s talk! My team can create a tailored solution to help you adapt to this situation with proactive measures.  

Long-Term Opportunities 

While new tariffs present challenges, they also create opportunities for businesses to strengthen operations and explore new strategies. Companies that act decisively now can position themselves for greater stability in the long run. 

Potential Advantages of Trade Shifts

Some businesses are already considering reshoring as an opportunity to boost domestic manufacturing. With rising concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities, many companies emphasize "Made in the USA" branding as a selling point.  

Diversifying supply chains to reduce reliance on single-source suppliers has also become a priority. This aims to ensure that disruptions in one region don’t bring entire operations to a halt. Investments in multimodal transport solutions, which provide more flexibility in how goods move across borders, are also becoming increasingly valuable. 

Industries That May Benefit

Certain industries stand to gain from these trade shifts.

• U.S. manufacturing – Particularly in automotive, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, where domestic production could see growth. 
• Supply chain & regulatory professionals – Demand for trade compliance expertise is expected to rise. 
• Companies with strong distribution networks – Businesses able to pivot quickly between suppliers and logistics partners will have a competitive edge. 

Proven Long-Term Strategies

It’s one thing to be aware of trade shifts; it’s another to face them head-on with strategic thinking. These are the long-term strategies I’ve seen businesses implement time and again to overcome trade shift challenges: 

• Scenario planning & risk management: Businesses investing in risk forecasting and flexible contingency strategies are better equipped to handle trade volatility. 
• Collaboration across supply chains: Strengthening relationships with suppliers and logistics partners enhances resilience. 
• Investment in regulatory expertise: Businesses that stay ahead of compliance requirements avoid costly disruptions. 

You Don’t Have to Adapt to Potential Mexican & Canadian Tariffs Alone  

Although new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports have not yet been enacted, businesses cannot afford to wait for final decisions before taking action. The uncertainty surrounding these trade policies highlights the importance of preparing for supply chain disruptions, strengthening compliance efforts, and exploring alternative sourcing strategies. 

Companies that take a proactive approach—whether through risk assessments, supplier diversification, or domestic production investments—will be in the best position to withstand potential policy shifts. While trade tensions continue to evolve, businesses that stay informed and adaptable will emerge stronger in the long run. 

For expert guidance on navigating trade shifts, Star USA can help businesses assess risks and develop customized compliance strategies. Let’s start the conversation about how we can work together to overcome your challenges! 

Sources Reuters | Associated Press